PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC RECESSION UNDER PRESIDENT TINUBU ADMINISTRATION

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

An economic recession is characterised by a decline in the economic condition of a country, when there is no increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, which is equivalent to a continuous period of six months (Lekwa et al., 2017). A recession is defined by several indicators, including inflation, decreased demand for non-essential goods, a declining stock market, limited cash flow, reduced foreign exchange reserves, rising unemployment resulting from institutional changes, high interest rates on banking services, and perceived low incomes (Davis, 2019).

Typically, a recession is less intense than a depression, yet it frequently results in a state of depression (Bala, 2017). An economic recession refers to a substantial decrease in economic activity that affects the entire economy and lasts for more than a few months. This reduction is typically observed in indicators such as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real income, unemployment rates, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. Noko (2017) provides a definition of economic recession as a period of time when the real GDP growth rate is negative for two consecutive quarters, specifically the first and second quarters. An economic recession can be defined as a noticeable decrease in industrial production, employment, real income, unfavourable exchange rate fluctuations, and a downturn in wholesale and retail commerce.  A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as indicated by a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not always require this specific condition to classify an economic downturn as a recession (Johnson, 2019).  The nation is currently facing a challenging phase characterised by widespread job losses, business failures, and decreased purchasing power among many households (Oke, 2017).

Nigeria, the largest economy in Africa, is highly dependent on oil earnings, which makes it vulnerable to changes in global oil prices. Under President Tinubu's administration, a combination of foreign and internal causes has led to an economic recession. The country's economic troubles have been worsened by global oil price instability, as well as domestic issues such as insecurity, infrastructural shortfalls, and policy shifts (Adu et al., 2021). The administration has enacted a range of economic measures with the goal of diversifying the economy, maintaining budgetary responsibility, and implementing structural changes to lessen the impact of the recession. The economic recession in Nigeria has a detrimental effect on the nation's security, since it increases the likelihood of unemployed graduates resorting to engaging in different criminal activities in order to sustain themselves. Due to widespread job losses and high unemployment rates, there is a possibility of an increase in crimes such as drug trafficking, kidnapping, ritualistic murder, cybercrimes, and advanced fee fraud. This is because people are resorting to these alternative methods of survival.  These crimes have significant ramifications on the socio-economic processes, cultural equilibrium, and governance of the country. Additionally, they provide a highly unfavorable impression of the country among international observers.    A significant number of well-educated young individuals experience frustration as a result of unemployment, which may lead them to engage in criminal activities. Conversely, illiterate individuals often resort to more extreme and violent measures in order to survive.

The public's impression of the Tinubu administration's management of the recession is influenced by various elements, such as media portrayal, individual encounters, and the prominence of government initiatives. The public has had varied responses to the administration's attempts to tackle the crisis by implementing policy measures like as subsidy changes, infrastructure investment, and social intervention programmes. Comprehending various viewpoints is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of these measures and pinpointing areas that might be enhanced. Therefore, the investigation is necessary.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Economic recessions present substantial difficulties to societies, impacting diverse sectors and populations in complex ways. During President Bola Tinubu's tenure, Nigeria has faced significant economic hardships, resulting in broad public apprehension and deliberation about the government's ability to effectively address these issues. An important topic of investigation is the public opinion of the Tinubu administration's management of the economic recession, since it has a significant impact on faith in the government, adherence to policies, and social cohesion.

Ishola et al., (2024) states that the economic downturn has led to a rise in unemployment, inflation, and a decline in the overall quality of life. The economic difficulties have had a significant effect on households, resulting in financial instability and higher levels of poverty. Moshood's (2017) study reveals a substantial impact of the recession on undergraduate students. The economic hardships experienced by households have posed significant obstacles for several students in meeting the costs of tuition fees, housing, and other important educational materials. As a result, their academic advancement has been interrupted and their general state of health has been impacted. Akanimoh et al., (2020) argues that the financial and economic demands have resulted in heightened psychosocial stress among the population, specifically affecting vulnerable groups such as the elderly, rural populations, and predominantly undergraduate students. The combination of financial management responsibilities and academic obligations has led to mental health issues, specifically anxiety and sadness.

A significant worry in Nigeria is the government's hesitance to increase the minimum wage for its citizens, despite the inflationary consequences of several projects (Obi, 2024). High inflation rates can lead to a decline in the overall standard of living, as individuals struggle to maintain their previous levels of spending and lifestyle (Sunny, 2021). Rising costs in food, housing, healthcare, and education force households to make difficult financial decisions, often leading to reduced savings and limited investment opportunities. Economic recessions typically result in a decline in customers' purchasing power, leading to a decrease in demand for goods and services provided by small and medium-sized firms (SMEs). A decline in demand might exert a substantial adverse impact on their revenue and profitability (Akabueze, 2023). Enacting further measures, such as increasing the minimum wage, could have been a viable strategy to alleviate the impact of inflation on the Nigerian population.

The fundamental issue at hand is complex and requires a thorough examination of the general public's assessment of how the Tinubu administration has managed the economic downturn. This study intends to generate empirical data on the distinct difficulties encountered by various demographic groups and assess the public's perception of the government's effectiveness during this period, with a particular emphasis on vulnerable populations. Comprehending various viewpoints is essential for policymakers, since it can inform the development of more efficient and adaptable economic policies. Hence, the necessity for doing this investigation.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically evaluate the public perception of the impact of economic recession under President Tinubu administration. Specific objectives of this study are to:

To assess public perception on the level of recession in Nigeria experienced under President Tinubu administration.

To analyze public perception of the economic recession under President Tinubu's administration

To examine the impact of the recession on the vulnerable population under President Tinubu administration.

To provide solutions based on public perception for better policy formulation.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What is the level of recession in Nigeria experienced under President Tinubu administration?

What is the public perception of the economic recession under President Tinubu's administration?

What is the impact of the recession on the vulnerable population under President Tinubu administration?

1.5 Research Hypothesis

To determine the effectiveness of this study, the following research null hypotheses will be formulated to guide the study and it will be tested at 0.05% levels of significance.:

Ho: There is no high level of recession in experienced by public under President Tinubu administration.

Ha: There is a high level of recession in experienced by public under President Tinubu administration.

1.6 Significance of the study

This study holds great significance due to its implications in various areas, including socio-economic, educational, and policy-making domains. The study seeks to analyse the public view of the economic recession's impact under President Tinubu's administration. Its objective is to offer useful insights that help shape future economic strategies, better policy development, and increase public welfare. 

The results of this survey will offer policymakers with factual information and understanding of how the public perceives the economic policies that were put in place during the recession. This data is essential for developing more efficient and adaptable economic strategies that target the specific requirements and worries of the public, particularly susceptible demographics like students. The study enhances government accountability by emphasising public view of the Tinubu administration's management of the recession. It promotes openness and accountability in government, guaranteeing that economic strategies are formulated and executed in a way that advantages the wider populace.

Furthermore, by increasing understanding regarding the general public's encounters and perspectives throughout the economic downturn, it is possible to stimulate advocacy endeavours aimed at enhancing economic policies and social support systems. It has the ability to rally public backing for endeavours that seek to ease economic difficulties and enhance living standards.

 In addition, future researchers will utilise it as a thorough examination of the current body of literature. Consequently, other students with an interest in studying this subject will have the opportunity to utilise this work as reliable knowledge that can be comprehensively evaluated. 

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focus is to critically evaluate the public perception of the impact of economic recession under President Tinubu administration. Specifically, the study will analyze public perception of the economic recession under President Tinubu's administration. 

Geographically, the study will be carried out in Mile one, Lagos State.

1.8 Limitations of the study

Like in any human attempt, the researchers encountered several small limits during the investigation. The primary constraint was the scarcity of comprehensive literature on the topic, as there is a paucity of data regarding public perception of the impact of economic recession under President Tinubu administration. Therefore, a substantial investment of time and effort was required to find the suitable materials, books, or information and collect data. 

Moreover, this study is limited by its limited sample size and restricted geographical reach, namely concentrating just on Nigeria. Hence, the findings of this study cannot be extrapolated, thereby necessitating additional research. 

Furthermore, the researcher's limitations were predominantly attributable to budgetary restraints, as they are a student and lack a means of financial support. The research location's transportation charges were difficult to afford due to the exorbitant cost of transportation, which is directly impacted by the current inflation in Nigeria.

In addition, the researcher encountered a time limitation as a result of having to conduct this research while simultaneously meeting the responsibilities of attending lectures and engaging in other educational pursuits.

1.9 Definition of terms

Economic recession: Economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales

Inflation: Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.

Public perception: A belief or opinion, often held by many people and based on how things seem. Public perception is simply the type of information obtained from a public opinion survey